fantasy premier league captain tips GW37 – captain options analysed plus transfer poll results

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW37 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. Geek note: contributor picks now added.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW37 – captain options analysed plus transfer poll results

The fixtures

The Bookies Team win odds

Man City v Leicester £1.14  – Aguero, Sterling

Huddersfield v Man Utd £1.30 – Rashford if fit, Pogba

Newcastle v Liverpool £1.33 – Salah, Mane

Arsenal v Brighton £1.38 – Aubameyang, Lacazette

Chelsea v Watford £1.40 – Hazard, Higuain

The Bookies player odds

The odds are for £1 invested up to £2.40. They assume the player starts and ignores assist potential.

£1.61 – Aguero

£1.75 – Sterling

£1.80 – Hazard

£1.85 – Auybameyang

£1.95 – Jimenez

£2.00 – Son, Chicharito, Mane, Salah, Lacazette, Lukaku

£2.05 – Higuain

£2.10 – Martial, Rashford, Pogba, Sane

£2.15 – Richarlison, Arnautovic, Jota

£2.20 – Sigurdsson

£2.30 – Wilson, Firmino

£2.37 – Moura, Llorente

The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll. Thanks very much for taking the time to vote:

So Aguero averaged 46%,  Sterling 14%

Btw, the FFGeek poll and site 2 and 3 asks who will you captain. Site 4 is silent. Site 1 asks who is the best captain.

FFGeek contributor captain picks

Thats Aguero 6, Sterling 5, Salah 2 and Rashford/Mane 1 each

Some stats

I’ll be looking at Aguero and Sterling this week

Gametime

With Man City having no European game this week and the title still very up for grabs by both Man City and Liverpool  I would be shocked if either of Sterling or Aguero don’t start

Aguero

Here’s Aguero’s starts at home against the non top 6 teams:

So returns in 8 of 8 games and a pretty healthy points average.  Only in 2 games v Newcastle and Watford would have his underlying stats been below my expectation for the price.  Newcastle was pretty marginal too.  Average minutes are probably the main negative but that’s less likely to be an issue at this stage.

Sterling

Here’s Sterlings’s starts at home against non top 6 sides

So returns in 7 of 8 games. A very good set of numbers indeed.  From an underlying stats perspective only the Newcastle game and the Palace game didn’t meet expectations.

A side by side of the averages

So Sterling has the edge on points but Aguero on the underlying stats.

Defence

As they are both playing the same team I won’t do a detailed analysis. In simple terms away from home Leicester are ranked 8th in goals conceded with 27 goals conceded from 18 matches.  In xG terms they are ranked 6th defensively away from home.

It is difficult to make a defensive assessment with the season having 2 very different managers in charge.  The reason for positivity is around the manager Rodgers who, in theory, seems unlikely to  park the bus on Man City.  However that is an untested theory as since Rodgers has taken over they have yet to play a top 6 team away from home.

Summary

Aguero and Sterling are the 2 players I have concentrated on.

Gametime wise I would be very surprised if either Sterling or Aguero didn’t start. Aguero has penalty duties.

The bookies have Aguero at £1.61 as an anytime goalscorer and Sterling at £1.75

The polls average sees Aguero at 46% and Sterling at 14%

Here’s the contributor split:  Aguero 6, Sterling 5, Salah 2 and Rashford/Mane 1 each 

The stats are relatively even but favour Sterling in actual returns and Aguero in underlying stats.

The defence shapes up well as 8th in away goals conceded and 6th in xG conceded.  Difficult to assess though given the change of manager and the fact that the new manager has yet to face a top 6 team away.  There is an expectation that Rodgers won’t park the bus.

The FFGeek choice

I generally treat the captain choice as a rank shield rather than a sword so I’ll be going with Aguero.

The Remaining Polls

Other stuff

If you’re needing to plan transfers use Joseph Crilleys google spreadsheet which is an excellent team planning tool.

You can see the teams of 10 top FPL managers here

See also last seasons 715 OR finisher Andrew Ferguson’s team as well as the Geeks early FPL  team thoughts

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