fantasy premier league captain tips GW37 – captain options analysed plus transfer poll results


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Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW37 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. Geek note: contributor picks now added.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW37 – captain options analysed plus transfer poll results

The fixtures

fantasy premier league captain tips GW37

The Bookies Team win odds

Man City v Leicester £1.14  – Aguero, Sterling

Huddersfield v Man Utd £1.30 – Rashford if fit, Pogba

Newcastle v Liverpool £1.33 – Salah, Mane

Arsenal v Brighton £1.38 – Aubameyang, Lacazette

Chelsea v Watford £1.40 – Hazard, Higuain

The Bookies player odds

The odds are for £1 invested up to £2.40. They assume the player starts and ignores assist potential.

£1.61 – Aguero

£1.75 – Sterling

£1.80 – Hazard

£1.85 – Auybameyang

£1.95 – Jimenez

£2.00 – Son, Chicharito, Mane, Salah, Lacazette, Lukaku

£2.05 – Higuain

£2.10 – Martial, Rashford, Pogba, Sane

£2.15 – Richarlison, Arnautovic, Jota

£2.20 – Sigurdsson

£2.30 – Wilson, Firmino

£2.37 – Moura, Llorente

The FPL advice site Polls




Here’s the FFGeek captain poll. Thanks very much for taking the time to vote:

fantasy premier league captain tips GW37

Site 1 %FFGeek %Site 2%Site 3 %Site 4%
Aguero3750525736
Sterling141719213
Salah10815116
Jimenez75n/an/a5

So Aguero averaged 46%,  Sterling 14%

Btw, the FFGeek poll and site 2 and 3 asks who will you captain. Site 4 is silent. Site 1 asks who is the best captain.

FFGeek contributor captain picks

ContributorCaptain
Joseph CrilleySterling
Rob ReidAguero
Alex BallRashford
Keith SpencerSterling
FPL WordSalah
Mikael DAguero
Jordan SadlerMane
Costas ChariSterling
Sergio TorijaSalah
Yaniv SalomonAguero (TC)
Mikael HSterling
Stephen TroopAguero
Andrew FergusonAguero
Robert CosgroveSterling
Prakhar PatelAguero (TC)

Thats Aguero 6, Sterling 5, Salah 2 and Rashford/Mane 1 each

Some stats

I’ll be looking at Aguero and Sterling this week

Gametime

With Man City having no European game this week and the title still very up for grabs by both Man City and Liverpool  I would be shocked if either of Sterling or Aguero don’t start

Aguero

Here’s Aguero’s starts at home against the non top 6 teams:

fantasy premier league captain tips GW37

So returns in 8 of 8 games and a pretty healthy points average.  Only in 2 games v Newcastle and Watford would have his underlying stats been below my expectation for the price.  Newcastle was pretty marginal too.  Average minutes are probably the main negative but that’s less likely to be an issue at this stage.

Sterling

Here’s Sterlings’s starts at home against non top 6 sides

fantasy premier league captain tips GW37

So returns in 7 of 8 games. A very good set of numbers indeed.  From an underlying stats perspective only the Newcastle game and the Palace game didn’t meet expectations.

A side by side of the averages

So Sterling has the edge on points but Aguero on the underlying stats.

Defence

As they are both playing the same team I won’t do a detailed analysis. In simple terms away from home Leicester are ranked 8th in goals conceded with 27 goals conceded from 18 matches.  In xG terms they are ranked 6th defensively away from home.

It is difficult to make a defensive assessment with the season having 2 very different managers in charge.  The reason for positivity is around the manager Rodgers who, in theory, seems unlikely to  park the bus on Man City.  However that is an untested theory as since Rodgers has taken over they have yet to play a top 6 team away from home.



Summary

Aguero and Sterling are the 2 players I have concentrated on.

Gametime wise I would be very surprised if either Sterling or Aguero didn’t start. Aguero has penalty duties.

The bookies have Aguero at £1.61 as an anytime goalscorer and Sterling at £1.75

The polls average sees Aguero at 46% and Sterling at 14%

Here’s the contributor split:  Aguero 6, Sterling 5, Salah 2 and Rashford/Mane 1 each 

The stats are relatively even but favour Sterling in actual returns and Aguero in underlying stats.

The defence shapes up well as 8th in away goals conceded and 6th in xG conceded.  Difficult to assess though given the change of manager and the fact that the new manager has yet to face a top 6 team away.  There is an expectation that Rodgers won’t park the bus.

The FFGeek choice

I generally treat the captain choice as a rank shield rather than a sword so I’ll be going with Aguero.

The Remaining Polls

Other stuff

If you’re needing to plan transfers use Joseph Crilleys google spreadsheet which is an excellent team planning tool.

You can see the teams of 10 top FPL managers here

See also last seasons 715 OR finisher Andrew Ferguson’s team as well as the Geeks early FPL  team thoughts

Follow FFGeek on twitter and facebook and instagram for article updates and news

Geek League links and details

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15 thoughts on “fantasy premier league captain tips GW37 – captain options analysed plus transfer poll results”

  1. Sterling might only average 0.82xG per game but he gets 5 points each (4.1 expected points), Aguerro only get 4 points per goal so 0.96 Goals equates to 3.84 expected points. Assist rate is almost identical so I would argue Sterling has the better underlying stats (unless you are doing something to equate for the impact expected goals and assists have on bonus points).

  2. Hey everyone!
    Please forgive me but why am I most probably the only one thinking of Salah or Mane as captain? Any problem with any of them against Newcastle that I don’t know of?

  3. NS – Salah or Mane could easily land goals and big captain points for you. You will see that Salah is third in the polls.

    But Man City playing at home simply carries more goal threat than Liverpool playing away, especially with Liverpool having a draining trip to Barcelona midweek. Aguero and Sterling too all the polls and quite rightly so as the probability of them landing a big haul is higher.

  4. I was tempted by Jota this week given the form he is in and the fixture.. but I am sticking with Aguero.

    Still don’t know who to transfer in. I would like Rashford but he looks a major doubt. Not confident enough on Lukaku I think. And not sure if Martial will even start. I have Pogba.

    Maybe I should look elsewhere? I have 2FT. Generally stumped this week!

  5. Man Utd fixtures stand out now ( Huddersfield & Cardiff ) but Rashford is injury flagged and has five straight blanks, Lukaku seven straight blanks, Pogba has blanked 7 out of the last 8, and United are nine games without a clean sheet !! Maybe Shaw of the United lot.

    I want Trent or Shaw but I am committed to 343 with Jota my 4th mid v Fulham, so I might roll my transfer and get one of them next week and downgrade Jota for Liverpool away..

    • Not making any sense..He was already rested against Ajax,so if they want to secure top 4 he sure must play..Lucas is much more risk of a rotation,don’t you think?

  6. Do we think Gray will start v Chelsea? I’ve not got cash to change him, but he has two goals in two games, so perhaps worth playing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wolves v Fulham low scoring. I’ve Vertonghen. It’s either TAA or Shaw for me, though I don’t trust Man U.

  7. Agreed Son will start, but I think he will be subbed early if Spurs are comfortably winning.

    I’m captaining Aguero, even though I’ve a sneaky feeling Leicester will be defensively very tight.

  8. Any advice would be great!

    I have Laca, firminho and Son who I feel all at risk of rotation this week. Looking at making 1 or 2 subs this week but who do you think has high chance of starting? Laca played 90 last night, Firminho recovering from injury and Son potentially tested for Champs league.

    Your thoughts?

    Also, apparently rashford trained on Wednesday and united play on Sunday so think he will be fine by then

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