fantasy premier league form – new underlying stat form tables GW27


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This week I’ve tried something different with my cumulative underlying stats article by producing some recent form tables for players and defences.  I’ve then produced a current form FPL team for simplicity

fantasy premier league form – new underlying stat form tables GW27





Here’s some new tables I’ve done to look at underlying stat recent form.

People have different views as to what form constitutes.  I think 4-6 games is way too short and distorted by fixtures and one off performances so I’ve gone for the last 10 gameweeks.

I’ve taken all the information from the amazing free site understat.com.

Methodology

I’ve taken the last 10 gameweeks expected goals per 90 minutes (xG90) and expected assists per 90 (xA90)  and turned them into projected FPL points over a hypothetical season.  I’ve then adjusted it for the average minutes played per appearance.

It’s not perfect as the order Understat puts things in is a little hard to fathom.  Also the average minutes can be distorted by sub appearances and injury returns but those are imperfections I will have to live with to make it a viable article time wise

I’ve also added a value for money colum where I’ve just taken the projected points and divided them by the players value.

For attackers there’s no appearance clean sheet or bonus points.  Just raw attacking points.  For defenders the same.

It’s a work in progress at the moment so excuse any imperfections.  Just because a player is in the schedule doesn’t mean he is fit or a guaranteed selection.

Midfielders

The table is sorted by projected goal and assist only season FPL points adjusted for average minutes over the last 10 gameweeks

fantasy premier league form

Forwards

The table is sorted by projected goal and assist only season FPL points adjusted for average minutes over the last 10 gameweeks

fantasy premier league form

Defenders

The table is sorted by projected goal and assist only season FPL points adjusted for average minutes over the last 10 gameweeks

fantasy premier league form

Team defence

The table is sorted by xG against over the last 10 gameweeks.

Team Games Conceded xG against
Liverpool 10 9 7.60
Manchester City 11 11 9.47
Tottenham 10 9 10.70
Chelsea 10 16 11.32
Leicester 10 14 12.36
Wolverhampton Wanderers 10 14 12.48
Crystal Palace 10 11 12.62
Burnley 10 15 13.17
Manchester United 10 9 13.89
Southampton 10 14 14.02
Brighton 10 17 14.76
Arsenal 10 17 15.12
Watford 10 11 15.48
West Ham 10 14 15.67
Newcastle United 10 12 16.17
Fulham 10 18 16.30
Cardiff 10 17 16.97
Huddersfield 10 21 17.56
Bournemouth 10 21 17.60
Everton 11 20 17.61

The fantasy premier league form team

Structure

So I’ve structured the team in the following way

2 cheap GKs using the team defence form table

2 premium Defenders using the team defence form table and picking the most attacking defender

3 cheapish defenders using the team defence form table and picking the most attacking defender

The 3 top projected scoring players for captain picks

the rest are on value for money but adjusted with the last player to reach a budget of £103.2m

I tried to get players who are reasonably gametime secure and it isn’t taking into accout future fixtures and blanks and doubles

The team

fantasy premier league form

A few comments

The defence threw up some interesting players.  Alexander Arnold over Robertson, Boly over Doherty and Schlupp over Van Aanholt.  I would say though that Schlupp has only started the last 2 so could be a gametime risk and has been boosted by his LM position.  No City player was flagged in the rankings so I stuck in Laporte.

The 3 minute adjusted top scoring players were Salah, Pogba and Aguero/Aubameyang tied. I put Aubameyang in due to the blank GW27 for Aguero.

It is worth mentioning that Pogba has been boosted by 3 penalties in his last 10 games.

Barnes was the clear value for money leader in the forwards with Rashford and surprisingly Mitrovic running close for 2nd.

The midfield was a little trickier.  Brooks was top for value for money but injured.  Jota was the next one after Pogba so an easy fit.  Then it was Pedro who I ignored for gametime risk.  That brought in Deulofeu and that left enough money to go down to Son to bring the budget up to £103.2m which seems a reasonable target.



See underlying stats on players from GW26 the early FFGeek team article and the 10 top FPL managers we follow

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7 thoughts on “fantasy premier league form – new underlying stat form tables GW27”

  1. Interesting to note that Leicester are 5th on the table for xg conceded given their real bad run of fixtures lately. Considering that the fixtures now couldnt be better, I think a Leicester defender (Perreira namely) will prove great value for the rest of the season.

    • Apps is an abbreviation for appetiser. It show how many times the player in question has had a pre game snack. You can see the correlation with the biggest defenders, the likes of Maguire, Virgil and Van Aanholt all having an appetiser on no less than ten occasions. Of course Zouma leads the way here with 11 because he is bigger and hungrier than everyone else.

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