fantasy premier league GW9 tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships


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Here’s our fantasy premier league GW9 tips article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the most transferred in players (bandwagons) and most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.

fantasy premier league GW9 tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships

Stats definition:

PP90: The FPL points per 90 minutes played for 18/19.

Av mins last 4: The average minutes played in the last 4 games. Coming on as sub or not being played for non injury related matters will count

Consistency: the number of times a goal or assist has been returned in a match as a proportion of the total starts.

ATGS/CS* odds GW9: Anytime goal scorer odds or clean sheet odds* for defenders for GW9.  As I write this ATGS odds aren’t available

Fixture ease: The fixture ranking by difficulty for GW9-14 and GW9-11. See our fixture ease article

U Stats position rank. The ranking from an attacking point of view for their FPL position of Fwd or Mid or def in 18/19. See our cumulative underlying stats article. Taken from the excellent free site understat.com and free site whoscored.com

Prices as of Wednesday 10 October

The Bandwagons

These are the 5 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek.



fantasy premier league GW9 tips

Doherty

Only Liverpool and Man City have more clean sheets than Wolves.  Only Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea have conceded less goals and only Man City and Liverpool have better xG conceded.  Apart from Liverpool no one so far has kept Man City to 1 goal or less.

This is not fixture related either.  The first 8 fixtures haven’t all been with easy teams.  Both Manchester clubs have played against them.

That’s even before we get on to Doherty himself.  A goal and 2 assists in his first 8 games.  Also backed up by good underlying stats.  In my cumulative underlying stats article only Ben Davies and Alonso have better attacking underlying stats.  Davies isn’t a regular starter and Alonso costs £6.9m

Next 2 fixtures are good although after that they are mixed

Watford (H)
Brighton (A)
Spurs (H)
Arsenal (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Cardiff (A)

Lacazette

In the attacking lineup by random selection world that is Arsenal’s Unai Emery then Lacazette seems to offer an oasis of certainty as the clubs CF.  Given some of the weird and wonderful selections that we’ve seen from the manager anything could happen though and the stunning performance of Aubameyang as a sub v Fulham.  Amazingly played in his natural position of CF must have offered Emery something to think about.

After 3 sub appearances to start the season Lacazette has played 5 games as CF and returned a goal or assist in every one of them for a total of 4 goals and 4 assists.  He’s also done ok on bonus with 7.  However, he has needed 2 returns in 2 of the 3 occasions he’s gained bonus points so the picture still needs some filling in.

The main negative is his underlying stats.  You can see from the table that’s he way down the list and they aren’t quite good enough for a premium striker in my view.  However while he may not be in Hazard’s class for over performing underlying stats (no one is) he’s historically been able to by a reasonable distance. So you could put that supposed impediment in the so what file if you choose.

Being in the Europa League rather than UCL is a huge advantage.

Leicester (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Liverpool (H)
Wolves (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Spurs (H)

Hazard

When Hazard is 3rd in the midfield underlying stats table as he is in mine at the moment then watch out.  Given his unparalleled ability to over perform them only carnage can come from it and Sarri’s rather eye popping predictions don’t look so ridiculous as they did when first stated.

Hazard seems to have been managed perfectly by Sarri at the moment.  He was introduced slowly after the world cup (unlike Kane and Alli) was told to focus on staying in attacking positions and hasn’t started in the Europa League games.

So far it’s 7 goals and 3 assists in 6 starts plus 2 as sub at an PP90 that even would make 17/18 Salah go wow.  What’s more in the 5 games he’s scored he’s got 3 bonus points in 4 of them.  His ability to get bonus points has no longer meant they are the icing on the cake.  They are pretty much part of the cake itself.

Oh and he also has penalty duties and has played 90 minutes in 5 of his 6 starts.  The other being 83 minutes after they were 4-1 up.

Man Utd (H)
Burnley (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Everton (H)
Spurs (A)
Fulham (H)

Wilson

One of the surprise packages this season have been Bournemouth and the 2 players in this bandwagon article are some of the beneficiaries.  Some of it may have been down to fixtures and a couple of sending offs but there’s no denying that they seem to be a vastly improved attacking and defensive outfit from last season.

Wilson has 3 goals and 7 assists from his first 8 games although disappointingly has only accrued 3 bonus points in those games.  He got 13 from 10 returning games last season so maybe it’s not a terminal issue.

His underlying stats are excellent and for the price no one has better in my cumulative stats table.  What’s more is he’s been producing them pretty consistently with only the Burnley 0-4 debacle the exception.

The only questions you would raise is that he is punching way way above his historic weight and the fixtures are soon to turn

Southampton (H)
Fulham (A)
Man Utd (H)
Newcastle (A)
Arsenal (H)
Man City (A)

Fraser

Another player who’s also playing out of his skin is the former Aberdeen midfielder.  Since Eddie Howe has adopted the rather novel idea of playing him in 1 position which suits him then he’s been flourishing.

3 goals and 3 assists in 8 starts, 7 of them playing 90 minutes is pretty impressive.  He’s also managed a fairly respectable 7 bonus points.

His underlying stats are good.  Against non top 6 sides in the left midfield position he has a fairly decent record so they maybe close to sustainable.

My only reservation is that he is pretty assist reliant although he’s shown himself to be a very clinical finisher.  That clinical finishing is a big part of his returns and if that dropped off things could look different.  Like Wilson faces a turn in fixtures soon

Southampton (H)
Fulham (A)
Man Utd (H)
Newcastle (A)
Arsenal (H)
Man City (A)

The Sinking Ships

These are the 5 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek.



fantasy premier league GW9 tips

Holebas

Suspended for 1 game after accumulating 5 yellow cards.

The Watford defence after performing fairly well in the early part of the season took a massive step back in GW8 with a 4-0 loss to Bournemouth.  Albeit one which was predicated on the early sending off of Kabsele.

Holebas success to date has been based on his set piece representation and initial price of £4.5m which has steadily risen with his goal and 4 assists to date for Watford.

It’s hard to predict where the Watford defence is going to go from here but your decision to hold may depend on the price you got him for.  At £4.5m he maybe worth the risk but at £4.9m you want someone to play every week which may be a bit ambitious.

Wolves (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Newcastle (A)
Southampton (A)
Liverpool (H)
Leicester (A)

Salah

I can write a whole lot of stats here explaining why I still believe in Salah due to his current underlying stats but I don’t see that as the crucial point.  I just don’t see why having stuck with him during his tough fixtures you would jettison him before Huddersfield, Cardiff and Fulham in the next 4.  To me it just makes no sense.

Huddersfield (A)
Cardiff (H)
Arsenal (A)
Fulham (H)
Watford (A)
Everton (H)

Moura

£7.4m for a Spurs midfielder who’s played half his games as a CF for all practical purposes seems a pretty good price even allowing for Spurs pretty dodgy form to date.

However while at a basic level this may seem appealing,  4 consecutive blanks, the last 2 being Huddersfield and Cardiff, would test the patience of any FPL manager.  Those 4 blanks followed 3 goals and an assist in his first 4 games.

Underlying stats wise he’s either been good or terrible.  The fixtures from now on are also quite mixed.

West Ham (A)
Man City (H)
Wolves (A)
Crystal Palace (A)
Chelsea (H)
Arsenal (A)

Zaha

The issue with Zaha is that he’s playing in a team that has created less xG than Burnley and Cardiff and only more than Newcastle and Huddersfield which is a pretty damning picture.  To top it all off the player who is classified as a striker has moved to the left wing where as the main threat of the team he is “targeted” shall we say.

His form as a result has fallen off a cliff and he hasn’t played well since the Huddersfield game.

What’s more the fixtures couldn’t be much worse

Everton (A)
Arsenal (H)
Chelsea (A)
Spurs (H)
Man Utd (A)
Burnley (H)

Kane

It’s funny that if you look at Kanes returns of last season, PP90 6.4 and this season 5.7.  If you then look at xG including pens, last season 0.78 and this season 0.65, he isn’t miles apart.  Watching him play though this season, which was emphasised in particularly graphic detail v Cardiff,  is a different player.  Why he wants or is told to be a number 10 rather than the CF of last season is beyond me.  I mean who is the better CF, Moura or Kane?  It just seem’s such a ridiculous thing to even ask.  Still that is the situation, the fox in the box is no longer Kane but Moura.  I mean come on.

West Ham (A)
Man City (H)
Wolves (A)
Crystal Palace (A)
Chelsea (H)
Arsenal (A)

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See also the Geeks team early thoughts and the 10 top FPL managers I follow articles

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