FPL premium midfielder tips – GW28 player rankings


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Here’s our FPL premium midfielder tips GW28 player rankings article. There’s a range of stats plus commentary on each player and their next 6 fixtures. This will help you choose the best transfer for your team

 FPL premium midfielder tips – GW28 player rankings

First it’s important to remember that each player is ranked as a transfer target for this week. So while we generally look at fixtures form and underlying stats a player who’s away to Man City is going to be ranked lower than someone home to Huddersfield for example. If possible a transfer should have a good fixture first up.

Firstly there’s a table of stats. Then there’s a bit of brief commentary on each player and their next 6 fixtures.

This is the 2nd player rankings article. There’s a defenders player rankings article . You may also find it interesting to see who the 10 top FPL managers I follow have and who the bandwagons are

STATS DEFINITIONS

Fixt Ease: The ease of the mentioned fixture range from an attacking perspective. See our GW28 fixture ease article.

Mins per FPL Pt. The amount of minutes a player takes to earn an FPL point. The shorter and obviously lower the number is the better

ATGS – the bookies anytime goalscoring odds for GW28.  The odds aren’t out for the Arsenal Man City game on Thursday so I’ve just inserted the team odds to win.

 Underlying stats rank.  I’ve ranked midfielders on their expected goals and assists per 90 minutes played from the better than excellent site understat.com.  I’ve converted those into attacking FPL points to rank all the midfielders.  That’s in our expected goals article and  Joseph Crilleys gameweek review article is a reference to underlying stats in the last gameweek.

GW31 fixtures – this refers to the potential upcoming blank week of GW31.  There’s a Y if they have a fixture in place.  Spurs are subject to a replay vs Rochdale so they are TBC.  See our latest blanks and double gameweeks article for more info

THE SCHEDULE




fpl premium midfielder tips

Salah

It’s hard to know what other superlatives you can come up with for his season.  22 goals plus 9 assists in 24 starts plus 2 sub appearances and the best underlying stats to back it up says it all.  Also bound to be a huge captain favourite for the blank GW31.

West Ham (H)
Newcastle (H)
Man Utd (A)
Watford (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Everton (A)

Sterling

Rested for the FA Cup match v Wigan and with City out plus the UCL match with Basel effectively over should give some additional opportunities for rest outside of the PL.  This may mitigate the PL rotation risk.  I say that on the assumption that Pep is logical which is a tricky assumption.

Sterling has had an outstanding season with 15 goals and 10 assists in 21 starts plus 4 as sub.  Only Salah as a midfielder has better underlying stats.

Arsenal (A)
Chelsea (H)
Stoke (A)
Blank GW31
Everton (A)
Man Utd (H)

Mane

Mane has come into FPL managers consciousness with his hat trick v Porto in the Champions League.  In truth his underlying stats have always been good it’s just not translated to FPL points.

Mane has 6 goals and 5 assists in 17 starts plus 1 sub appearance this season.  He’s benefited from Coutinho’s move in that we’ve seen him play 90 minutes in 4 of his last 5 games whereas prior to this he was a bit of a 70 minute sub magnet.

He has been relatively consistent with 9 returning games in his 17 starts but one of his main inhibitors is a lack of bonus points.  So far this season he’s only got 6.  That doesn’t appear to be related to minutes either.  His goal and assist in the 4 games he has played 90  minutes have not seen any bonus points.  This has resulted in only 2 double figure FPL hauls this season.  Salah in contrast has 12.

West Ham (H)
Newcastle (H)
Man Utd (A)
Watford (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Everton (A)

Mahrez

Mahrez has consistently gone about his business (except when a big name transfer option comes up) keeping the returns ticking over.  This season he’s got 8 goals and 10 assists in 23 starts and 2 sub appearances.  He’s returned a goal or assist in 15 of those 23 starts which is a very impressive 65% of games.  He’s been ok with bonus points getting 14 although I would have expected more given his star status within the team.  That’s meant only 3 double figure FPL point hauls.

Probably the main watchout with him is his underlying stats.  It’s telling that for midfielders I’ve ranked him 25th in underlying stats, behind Choupo Moting for example.  He has shown the ability to overperform his stats most notably in Leicesters title winning year.  He has also shown the ability to underperform them so it’s not like you can rule out regression as he has always over performed.

Great fixtures coming up but no GW31 fixture

Stoke (H)
Bournemouth (H)
West Brom (A)
Blank GW31
Brighton (A)
Newcastle (H)

De Bruyne

The one player who seems to be immune from Pep PL rotation.  His affect on Man City is clear to see as the main creator and set piece taker.  He’s started all 27 of Man City’s PL games and in the last 8 he’s played 90 minutes 6 times.  In the world of Pep that’s a miracle.  Now Man City may wrap the league up early which could lead to the likes of De Bruyne, Sterling and Aguero being rested but that isn’t in the very near future.

De Bruyne has 7 goals and 16 assists in his 27 starts.  He’s returned a goal or assist in 16 of those games for a 59% consistency rate.  He’s also in Hazard country when it comes to bonus amassing an impressive 25 points.  That’s allowed him to get 8 double figure FPL point hauls.  That mix of consistency and explosiveness doesn’t grow on trees.

Probably his main negative is his underlying stats and I’ve ranked them 18th of midfielders.  Now he has shown an ability to consistently over perform them probably due to his ability to score from distance and the deadly finishing of the strikers in Jesus and Aguero.  On that basis you may choose to write off the point as irrelevant.

Arsenal (A)
Chelsea (H)
Stoke (A)
Blank GW31
Everton (A)
Man Utd (H)




Eriksen

If Alli is the supposed goal scoring midfielder then Eriksen is the creative force set piece man.  Although you wouldn’t know it from his returns as he’s got less assists than Alli with 7 in 26 starts.   To complete the irony he’s got more goals than Alli with 7.  He’s certainly been more consistent with returns of a goal or assist in 13 of his 26 starts and he definitely has the ability to get bonus points with 18 to date.

Unlike Alli though his underlying stats are disappointing.  He has a bit of a mixed record with over and under performance as well which is a surprise given that it’s Kane as the likely recipient of his chances created and his ability to shoot from outside the box.

Likely blank in GW31 as it would be a major shock if Rochdale were able to eliminate them from the FA Cup at Wembley.

Crystal Palace (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Likely Blank GW31
Chelsea (A)
Stoke (A)

Alli

Spurs among the top 6 are a bit of an oasis of good fixtures in contrast to other teams and Alli is one of the beneficiaries of that.  To be honest he really hasn’t got that much in his favour apart from the fixtures.  In 25 starts plus 1 sub appearance he’s got 5 goals and 10 assists at a relatively poor rate of return.  That is partly down to a total inability to win bonus points with his measly 7 in total.  He’s also been very inconsistent only returning a goal or assist in 11 of those 25 starts.  A 40% return rate just isn’t on for the price.

However his underlying stats could be worse.  Ranked 12th is no disaster and you could make a case that he should have scored more goals and is unlucky so far.  He certainly has no history of under performing his shooting stats.

However apart from that crumb of comfort this is about some excellent fixtures, his history and an advanced central attacking position

Likely blank in GW31 as it would be a major shock if Rochdale were able to eliminate them from the FA Cup at Wembley.

Crystal Palace (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Likely Blank GW31
Chelsea (A)
Stoke (A)

Sanchez

So far things just haven’t worked out for the Man Utd transfer.  3 games and the only return being a rebound goal from his own missed penalty.

The positive in that in 2 of those 3 games he’s posted very good underlying stats.  As he’s done all season.  I’ve not ranked him 3rd in underlying stats behind Salah and Sterling for nothing.  However for whatever reason he’s not translated those stats into points at all and he’s majorly under performing them.  Unfortunately he has a pretty chequered history with underlying stats so it’s not like De Bruyne and Hazard who you can choose to conveniently ignore them based on history.

Then there’s the price.  £11.8m.  For that you’re wanting more than 8 goals and 5 assists in 20 starts plus 2 as sub.  He does scrape into the 50% return threshold returning in 11 of those 20 starts but 8 bonus points and only 3 double figure FPL point hauls is just not going top cut it one little bit.

The fixtures don’t really help either.  To get Sanchez you have to believe in his past history and that the underlying stats will eventually come home to roost.

Chelsea (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Liverpool (H)
Blank GW31
Swansea (H)
Man City (A)

Walcott

The former Arsenal RAM has started his Everton career positively with a goal and 2 assists in his first 4 matches although he has blanked in the last 2.  3 of the 4 games have been backed up by good underlying stats with only the last game, surprisingly considering it was a 3-1 victory over Crystal Palace, being disappointing

Watford (A)
Burnley (A)
Brighton (H)
Stoke (A)
Man City (H)
Liverpool (H)

Hazard

Hazard is an interesting case.  There’s no doubting his quality and his ability to score big plus he has the rare advantage of being Chelsea’s penalty taker.

He’s started 19 games plus 4 assists which has seen him returning a goal or assist on 10 occasions.  That’s just past the absolute bare minimum of a 50% return rate for the price.  However his unbelievable ability to win bonus points has seen him get 22 so far this season which has meant of the 10 returning games 6 have seen double figure FPL point hauls.

There are clear negatives though.  Firstly there’s the fixtures which couldn’t be much worse.  Secondly there’s his underlying stats which are pretty ordinary to say the least.  Hazard though has consistently over performed his goal threat stats and he has certainly stepped them up recently.  I would say only once in his last 7 has he produced disappointing underlying stats.

Man Utd (A)
Man City (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Blank GW31
Spurs (H)
West Ham (H)

Who didn’t make it

I didn’t include 4 players as I was a little unsure about pitch time either in terms of rotation or minutes on the pitch when starting.  Those 4 were David Silva, Son HM, Martial and Sane.  All of them, stats wise, stacked up well so if you don’t believe they are any sort of gametime risk they also become an option

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