Here’s our fantasy premier league captain pick GW15 article. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FFGeek captain poll, the contributors picks and a load of stats to seek out the best captain choice. There’s also the results of the transfer polls.
fantasy premier league captain pick GW15 – plus transfer poll results
The fixtures
Note the time. 6.30pm UK time tonight (Tuesday)
Bookies team to win odds
Burnley v Man City – £1.24 Sterling, De Bruyne, Jesus
Chelsea v Villa – £1.28 Abraham if fit, Pulisic
Leicester v Watford – £1.33 – Vardy
Liverpool v Everton – £1.20 Salah, Mane, Firmino
The bookies player odds
The odds are for £1 invested up to £2.40. They assume the player starts and ignores assist potential.
£1.53 – Abraham
£1.60 – Vardy
£1.65 – Batshuayi
£1.70 – Aubameyang
£1.73 – Jesus
£1.75 – Lacazette
£1.80 – Ings
£1.85 – Salah
£1.91 – Pulisi, Jimenez
£1.95 – Sterling, Mane
£2.10 – Kane
£2.15 – Pukki
£2.25 – Bernardo, Mahrez, Mousett
£2.30 – Rashford, Martial
£2.40 – C Wilson
The Captain Poll results
The captain poll asks who will be your captain?
Other FPL polls
Here’s a selection of results from other polls
Poll 1 is the highest traffic site and asks who is the best captain
There are 2 twitter polls which ask who your captain will be
The last 1 is a low volume site poll where there is no question
n/a means that player isn’t in the poll
The FFGeek contributor captain picks
Vardy vs Mane
I’ve looked at these 2 as the highest in the FFGeek poll
Gametime
With no European football it’s pretty impossible to see Vardy rested. Rodgers has also talked about how he has managed Vardy’s game by getting him to do less pressing and staying within the width of the 18 yard box to become a more pure goalscorer.
I think as we go into the following month Mane could always be a rotation risk. It’s worth saying that Klopp in the Premier League isn’t a great rotater of the front 3. He tends to abandon the domestic cups as an alternative.
Stat comparison
Hopefully the abbreviations are self explanatory. The first set of fixtures are non top 6 home to non traditional top 6 sides (excl Arsenal). The overall are the entire season.
I excluded Mane’s 16 minutes of nothing in GW1 in the overall fixtures. I included the Leicester game for Mane as it appears from the shot count that Leicester didn’t come to attack particularly like a non top 6 team. My recollection is Spurs and Man City did which is why they were excluded.
Defences
Watford away are:
17th ranked in goals conceded away with 15 in 7 away games
15th ranked in xGA away with 13.15
10th in shots per game away against with 14.1
7th in offsides per game away which is not sign of bus parking in away games
17th in possession away from home which suggests a defensive approach
In away games against traditional top 6 teams they lost 8-0 to Man City (xGA 6.63) and drew 1-1 with Spurs (xGA 0.89)
Everton away are:
13th ranked in goals conceded away with 12 goals conceded in 7 away games
4th ranked in xGA at away with 7.84 xGA
2nd in shots per game away against with 9.0
3rd equal in lowest offsides per game away which could be a sign of a bus being parked
8thth in possession away which leans towards them not being a defensive team
They have not played any traditional top 6 side away as yet. Their away games have been Palace, Villa, Bournemouth, Burnley, Brighton, Southampton and Leicester. At home they lost 3-1 to Man City (xGA 3.11) and drew with Spurs 1-1 (xGA 0.24)
Summary
Gametime Vardy seems certain to start. Harder to predict for Mane with fixture congestion but he’s not a highly rotated player.
The bookies have Vardy at £1.60 and Mane at 1.95
The FFGeek poll clearly favours Vardy at 70% vs 6% for Mane. Other FPL polls are similar
Of the 20 FFGeek contributors 18 have gone for Vardy
The stats for each player are also relatively close in all areas. Mane possibly has more assist potential.
Defences clearly favour Everton although distorted by the schedule somewhat
Vardy has the advantage of penalties which Mane doesn’t.
The FFGeek view
Vardy for me. I would normally go with the polls and certainly with this level of favourtism I would.
The Transfer Polls
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Other posts
Analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers
FFGeek contributors GW15 teams part 1
FFGeek contributors GW15 teams part 2
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