Here’s our fantasy premier league tips forwards GW14 article in our player rankings series. There’s a table of stats to help you make a transfer choice plus some commentary afterwards
fantasy premier league tips forwards GW14 – player rankings
This is the 3rd article in our player rankings series. See the defender and GK player rankings article and the midfield player rankings article
Methodology
I’ve started with a selection of forwards that I think will start GW14 and have some longevity in the team.
I’ve then looked at their expected goals and assists data in 18/19 so far as well as how it relates to their historical numbers. I’ve then adjusted it for their ability to over/underperform, their bonus potential, their fixtures over the next 6 and any specific 18/19 factors and numbers.
Whether you believe the rankings or not there’s plenty of information to make your own decision
Stats definitions
SP/Pen: indicates whether the player has some set piece representation or penalty responsibility
Pts per 90: the FPL points earned per 90 minutes played in 18/19
Consistency: the % of starts where the player has scored a goal or assist. Sub appearances are ignored.
Mins last 4: average minutes of the last 4 matches. Generally I count sub appearances or rotation but not injury absences although there is some discretion there.
Fixture ease ranking so you can see who has the best fixtures from GW14-19 and GW14-16. See our fixture ease article
xG90/xA 90 – their expected goals and expected assists per 90 minutes played. An xG90 of 0.3 would imply a 30% chance of scoring every 90 minutes based on an average premier league player. I’ve taken them from the excellent free site understat.com
Sh90 and KP90 and – shots per 90 and key passes per 90 minutes played. I’ve taken this from the excellent free site whoscored.com
ATGS GW14 – 1 bookies anytime goalscoring odds. ATGS assumes they start and doesn’t include assist potential.
Player values are as of Wednesday 28 November.
The schedule
Remember it ranks players by projected points over the next 6 games.
Here’s the schedule. If difficult to read you can copy and paste it by using this link to the google spreadsheet. I’ve laid it out so it’s much easier to sort the columns by higher and lower once you’ve copied it
A few notes
Kane sneaked ahead of Aguero on the model and does look more like the Kane we would expect with his shot volumes in the last 3. Slightly better fixtures after this week and an ability to out perform his xG also helped.
Vardy despite poor returns has been posting good underlying stats which are the reason for his high ranking.
Arnautovic is about great fixtures and if Noble stays on the bench he will have penalties as well.
Lacazette, Murray, Ings and Arnautovic are all injury doubts
See who the 10 top FPL managers I follow to see who they have in their defence and in my team in my early FFGeek team thoughts
See our fixture ease article for players with the best fixtures ad well as the bandwagons article for the most transferred in
Also the players underlying stats for GW13
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