Here’s our fantasy premier league tips forwards GW9 article in our player rankings series. There’s a table of stats to help you make a transfer choice plus some commentary afterwards
fantasy premier league tips forwards GW9 – player rankings
This is the 3rd article in our player rankings series. See the defender and GK player rankings article and the midfield player rankings article
Methodology
I’ve started with a selection of forwards that I think will start GW8 and have some longevity in the team.
I’ve then looked at their expected goals and assists data in 18/19 so far as well as how it relates to their historical numbers. I’ve then adjusted it for their ability to over/underperform, their bonus potential, their fixtures over the next 6 and any specific 18/19 factors and numbers.
Whether you believe the rankings or not there’s plenty of information to make your own decision
Stats definitions
There are a number of new stats this week so worth reading
SP/Pen: indicates whether the player has some set piece representation or penalty responsibility. A question mark means there is some doubt over the responsibility.
Pts per 90: the FPL points earned per 90 minutes played in 18/19
Consistency: the % of starts where the player has scored a goal or assist. Sub appearances are ignored.
Mins last 4: average minutes of the last 4 matches. Generally I count sub appearances or rotation but not injury absences although there is some discretion there.
Fixture ease ranking so you can see who has the best fixtures from GW9-14 and GW9-11. See our fixture ease article
Underlying stats ranking is from our underlying stats article cumulative to GW8 where projected goals are turned into raw points. It’s their rank in relation to each midfielder on that articles schedule not for every midfielder. Info from the excellent free site understat.com article and the free site whoscored.com
VFM rank. I have divided their projected points by their price to get a rough value for money assessment. This time it just ranks them in relation to each other.
ATGS GW9 – 1 bookies anytime goalscoring odds for the player. It assumes they start and doesn’t include assist potential. They aren’t available as yet and I’ll fill them in later.
Player values are as of Friday 12th October.
The schedule
Here’s the schedule which ranks the players by projected points over the next 6 games. If difficult to read you can copy and paste it by using this link to the google spreadsheet
A few comments
Aguero remains tops despite some minutes issues relating to a foot complaint. He’s effective enough when on the pitch and the fixtures are good to hold that place.
Firmino’s boost relates alot to some good fixtures.
Giroud has some good fixtures and has reasonably good underlying stats. He has a case of the 17/18 Richarlisons at the moment but history shows him to be a good finisher despite what we’ve seen recently and at the World Cup. That history has mitigated the current position and helped with his ranking.
I’ve assumed Arnautovic will continue with penalties which is questionable considering Noble said he gifted one to him as a one off for confidence. Despite that he’s still quite lowly ranked and that’s down to some minutes issues this season, a history of slightly under performing his underlying stats and a couple of tricky fixtures coming up.
Even for Unai Emery the team sheet against Fulham was something to behold so who knows when and where Aubameyang will play. I’ve assumed he’s going to play on the left but will have pens and his minutes will be mixed. Why anyone would play him there and not give him 90 minutes given he such a rolls royce player is beyond me but there you are.
I’ve assumed Murray won’t take pens and that Gross will.
Vokes I’ve assumed will be the Burnley penalty taker.
King I’ve ranked fairly low. Essentially his underlying stats when you strip out penalties are terrible (Alonso’s shooting stats are better) . It’s worth noting that 3 of his 4 goals have been penalties. Despite what Howe said about his players speed contributing to the penalty count last season they scored 3. If King were to continue as he is he would score 14. The most any team got last season was 10.
Jimenez was ranked quite low. That’s mainly because history shows him under performing his underlying stats.
GW9 fixtures
Some fixtures to note
Liverpools next 6
Huddersfield (A)
Cardiff (H)
Arsenal (A)
Fulham (H)
Watford (A)
Everton (H)
Fulham
GW9 Cardiff (A)
GW10 Bournemouth (H)
GW11 Huddersfield (A)
Chelsea
GW10 Burnley (A)
GW11 Crystal Palace (H)
GW12 Everton (H)
Leicester
GW10 West Ham (H)
GW11 Cardiff (A)
GW12 Burnley (H)
West Ham
GW11 Burnley (H)
GW12 Huddersfield (A)
Wolves
GW13 Huddersfield (H)
GW14 Cardiff (A)
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