FPL forwards GW30 player rankings


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Here’s our FPL forwards GW30 player rankings article. There’s a table of stats to help and a spreadsheet that can be filtered how you like to help you make a transfer choice

FPL forwards GW30 player rankings

This is the 3rd article in the player rankings series. There’s also defenders and GKs rankings plus midfielder player rankings

All the stats are from the free site understat

Methodology

The ranking is entirely objective and Maths based. I’ve ordered the players by their underlying stats ranking when I convert their xG and xA over the last 10 gameweeks into FPL points for goals and assists. That figure is adjusted for the average minutes played over the last 10 gameweeks.

I’ve then provided a range of different stats to help you choose which player is the best for a transfer in.

Stats definitions

Form s/10/5. These are the form rankings for season, for the last 10 gameweeks and the last 5 game weeks. They are the average minutes adjusted rankings once the xG and xA are converted into FPL points. The lower the number the better the ranking.

Av minutes: The average minutes played in the last 10 gameweeks. Non appearances aren’t counted.

PPM – the fantasy premier league sites points per match.

Fixture ease:  The easiest fixtures over the next 4 gameweeks.  See our fixture ease article.  I’ve gone up to GW33 as the makeup of GW34 which could be a home for the postponed matches is unknown.

GW31 fixt:  the fixture for the blank week GW31?

ATGS: the anytime goal scorer bookies odds for GW30 for £1 invested.

VFM: A Value for Money calculation by dividing the theoretical season goal and assist points by the players value. The higher the better.

The schedule ranked by forwards underlying stats over the last 10 gameweeks

Here is the link to the google spreadsheet. You can go to file>make a copy and then sort it how you like.

This is an objective schedule which convert underlying stats into FPL points. The schedule is not adjusted for fixtures.  360 minutes played in the last 10 gameweeks required




FPL forwards GW30 player rankings

 

Players not in the schedule

Rashford, Abraham and Deulofeu are not in there due to injury.

Jesus, Lacazette, Rodriguez, Iheanacho, Joelinton, Solanke are not in their due to lack of gametime security

Comments on a couple of players

The schedule merely converts their underlying stats into theotrtical FPL points.

Aubameyang and Ings are 2 players on the face of it you would think would be higher. The reason for that is they are both significantly over performing their underlying stats. Neither have any significant history of doing so.

If Aguero played 90 minutes he would be unstoppable.

Benteke’s underlying stats are not bad and he can bring others into play so his xA is quite good.  However as is obvious from watching him he just can’t finish to save his life.In the last 5 seasons he’s underperformed his xG.  One season by 8 goals if you can believe that.

Luckily for Palace his strike partner Ayew is over performing his underlying stats.  Overall he probably could justify doing so but not at this level.  This is a guy who doesn’t even shoot twice per 90 minutes which for a striker is woeful.

A few players who didn’t qualify minutes wise but are interesting

£6.5m Giroud is putting up good underlying stats albeit on 250 minutes in the last 10 gameweeks.  He even has room to improve on his xA.  He’s £2.05 to score anytime v Villa

Both Vydra and Rodriguez  for Burnley have put up underlying stats which are nothing short of mind blowing on limited minutes.  Both can demonstrate some history of posting good stats although nothing like their current run rate.  The issue though is when Barnes is fit which can’t be long although Rodriguez has started the last 7 so he maybe difficult to displace.

£4.3m Nketiah has started the last 3 for Arsenal and has put up some very good stats.  He just isn’t lasting the 90 minutes and surely Lacazette must be a big threat to his gametime

£5.0 Dwight Gayle has started the last 2 for Newcastle and produced some amazing underlying stats.  He has shown he can produce fairly solid stats but nothing like this.  The problem is he has no history of being able to put that xG into the net.

Team xG per game ranking last 10 gameweeks

TeamMGxGxG PG
Manchester City91620.382.26
Liverpool112022.852.08
Everton101620.722.07
Chelsea101818.931.89
Leicester101717.841.78
Wolves101217.131.71
Manchester United101416.031.60
Burnley101115.861.59
Watford101515.481.55
Tottenham101315.311.53
Arsenal91513.331.48
Brighton101013.381.34
Southampton101212.971.30
West Ham111514.181.29
Sheffield United9711.591.29
Bournemouth10912.461.25
Norwich10611.681.17
Aston Villa999.841.09
Newcastle United10610.511.05
Crystal Palace1099.630.96

A fixture ease schedule for attacking players

Here’s a graphic where the teams are ranked by the ease of the defences they face over the next 4 gameweeks. There’s attacking player suggestions below.




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GW30 fixture ease

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Bandwagons and sinking ships

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