FPL underlying stats – 4 players who have significantly under performed them

Here’s our FPL underlying stats article where we look at 4 players who have significantly underperformed their xG.  It can be a signal that things are going to improve in the short term.

FPL underlying stats – 4 players who have significantly under performed them

Roberto Firmino

The £9.5m Liverpool forward  has underperformed his xG by the more than anyone.

He’s scored 8 goals vs his xG of 15.49 and under performance of 7.49.

Since his last goal he’s managed to accumulate 4.39 in xG from 15 shots.  It includes some pretty amazing misses as well.

He has a mixed history of under and over performing his xG but nothing like the current situation. I can’t believe there isn’t an explosion of goals to come at some time.

In terms of raw underlying stats you will see in my player rankings article that he is 3rd and has been consistent all season.  He’s actually in my team  and I’m going to find it very hard to transfer him out given this background.


The £9.5m Man City forward has scored 10 goals vs his xG of 14.48 and under performance of 4.48

The main problem with Jesus has been security of starts with Aguero being the number 1 forward.

Unfortunately Jesus has a history of underperforming his xG by pretty significant amounts.  This is nothing special.

His xG is pretty phenomenal though even underperforming if he ever gets a regular place he still should return positively.  Good fixtures remain too.

Diogo Jota

The £6.4m Wolves forward has scored 6 goals vs his xG of 10.34 and under performance of 4.34

His explosion of sorts has already started with 3 goals in his last 3 games although that just matched his xG.

He has 1 previous season in the PL and pretty much equaled his xG so although that’s a limited history it does show that we could see him closing that gap.  He is currently 6th in my forward player rankings which is similar to his more popular (and consistent to be fair ) strike partner in Jimenez.

He still looks like a decent prospect going forward especially with good fixtures to come.

Chris Wood

The £6.1m  Burnley forward has scored 11 goals vs his xG of 14.47 and under performance of 3.47

He actually has a good record of over performing his underlying stats so we should expect a correction.  His biggest problem seems to be consistency.  His underlying stats are either monstrous or nothing it seems.  Burnley’s fixtures remaining aren’t that helpful.

Fixture Ease schedule

Here’s a schedule of their remaining fixtures.  How they will be played out, if at all is anyones guess

 FPL underlying stats

Other posts

A fixture ease schedule for defenders

A fixture ease schedule for attacking players 

FFGeek contributors during the PL suspension

10 top FPL managers

A focus on Bruno Fernandes

GK rotation or just 1 cheapie?

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