fantasy premier league transfer tips GW9 – the bandwagons and sinking ships


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Here’s our fantasy premier league transfer tips GW9 article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the 4 most transferred in players (bandwagons) and 4 most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.

fantasy premier league transfer tips GW9 – the bandwagons and sinking ships

On a general note with International games this week early transfers (unless you’re wildcarding) carry an additional injury risk with competing players.

Geek note: If you join our Patreon site you will get access to an FPL contributor tracker team which combines the contributors individual teams each week to show their favourite players, transfers and captains. It will always be completed on a Friday/Saturday in a normal gameweek. There will also be a spreadsheet of information so you can drill down further.

You also get:

Joe’s interactive transfer planner and points projection tool

FFGeek private leagues

Access to the FFGeek Slack channel for discussion with the contributors and members

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The Bandwagons

These are the 4 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek




Mane

The Mane vs Salah debate for Liverpool attacking player representation continues.  GW8’s 12 points for Mane vs 2 for Salah undoubtedly will have a bearing on the fact that Mane is part of the most transferred in players and Salah, as you’ll see below, part of the most transferred out.

In terms of stats and underlying stats they’re not that different.  Mane’s PPM is 7.1 vs Salah’s 6.9.  Their points are similar and their bonus, interestingly though Mane has played 100 minutes less.

Their underlying stats are also similar.   Positionally they are also similar on either side of Firmino in a front 3. Mane, as I write this, is £0.8m cheaper.

Salah has a slight advantage in shot volume and he also has penalties when Milner isn’t on the pitch.

It’s worth noting that Salah is an injury doubt which needs monitoring.  How much of an effect that is on their respective transfer ins and outs is difficult to tell.

GW9 MUN (A)
GW10 TOT (H)
GW11 AVL (A)
GW12 MCI (H)
GW13 CRY (A)
GW14 BHA (H)

Abraham

After 8 gameweeks the £7.7m Chelsea forward’s train keeps on chugging.  Only Aubameyang and Aguero as forwards have more FPL points and better Points Per Match. Only Aguero has a better xG90 and Shots per 90 for FPL forwards.  In the context of history for top 4 challenging forwards he’s also super cheap.

The only negative is that he’s never actually got to 90 minutes.  In fact he’s never got past 83 minutes.  His average when starting games is 77 minutes.

GW9 NEW (H)
GW10 BUR (A)
GW11 WAT (A)
GW12 CRY (H)
GW13 MCI (A)
GW14 WHU (H)

Mount

Speaking of super cheap here’s the Chelsea mostly LAM coming in at £6.8m.  His stats aren’t quite as impressive as Abrahams.  His 5th in total points for FPL midfielders and 7th in Points per Match.

He is a goal scoring midfielder rather than an assister and is 7th in xG90 for FPL mids.  Unlike Abraham though he has completed 90 minutes in 7 of 8 games and averages 89 minutes over the 8 gameweeks.

His position and importance to the pressing game of Chelsea means it’s hard to see him displaced when Hudson Odoi is fully fit.

GW9 NEW (H)
GW10 BUR (A)
GW11 WAT (A)
GW12 CRY (H)
GW13 MCI (A)
GW14 WHU (H)

Ricardo Pereira

Van Aanholt and Cresswell stand in a group of 3 with the £6.2m Leicester RB with 2 goals for FPL defenders.  He’s also equal with Alexander Arnold at the top of the FPL defenders points list and of those defenders who’ve started 5 games,  those 2 are top of the FPL Points per Match with 5.0 PPM.

The negative from an attacking point of view is his low ranking in my underlying stats form tables.  Here he is only 25th with a particularly low xA.  His volumes of key passes are also very low.  His is 0.6 per game.  By comparison Alexander Arnold is 4.1 and Digne 2.1.  He does make up with it to a certain extent with his shots per game which is also 0.6 but again Alexander Arnold is 1.1 and Digne 1.4.  To counter this though his xA last season was 0.15 vs this season’s 0.03 and his key pass stat was 0.9 per game vs this seasons 0.6 per game so the hope would be that he improves this stat and therefore attacking returns don’t regress too much.

Leicester statistically are one of the better defensive teams in the league as well even if that hasn’t translated into clean sheets.  They disappointingly have 2. There are 8 teams that have 3.   However Leicester are 2nd equal with Liverpool in goals conceded, 3rd in xG against and 6th in shots against.  I also have Leicester 5th in my defensive player fixture ease schedule with only a game against Arsenal being one where you would, probably, rule out a clean sheet possibility.

GW9 BUR (H)
GW10 SOU (A)
GW11 CRY (A)
GW12 ARS (H)
GW13 BHA (A)
GW14 EVE (H)

The Sinking Ships

These are the 4 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek




Pukki

It’s interesting that the £7.1m Norwich forward has the same points and the same PPM as Abraham yet finds himself as the most transferred out player whereas Abraham is the 2nd most transferred in. Pukki has blanked in his last 3 but it’s worth noting that Abraham has only returned once in his last 3.

The problem for Pukki is that 2 of the last 3 Norwich games were attacking disasters against Palace and Burnley where they were particularly ineffective attacking performances.

Statistically I would say Pukki has only performed poorly vs West Ham and Palace but his underlying stats are way off Abrahams and Norwich’s attacking stats are way off Chelsea’s.  Also when the last of the 3 blanks is a shambolic 1-5 loss to another promoted team then the transfers out are going to come thick and fast even if the disaster was predominantly defensively.

GW9 BOU (A)
GW10 MUN (H)
GW11 BHA (A)
GW12 WAT (H)
GW13 EVE (A)
GW14 ARS (H)

Salah

I talked alot about Salah in the Mane section above so rather than repeat myself I suggest you read that above

GW9 MUN (A)
GW10 TOT (H)
GW11 AVL (A)
GW12 MCI (H)
GW13 CRY (A)
GW14 BHA (H)

Lloris

The Spurs GK suffered a pretty significant elbow injury in the GW8 game v Brighton

“The findings have shown that Hugo has suffered ligament damage and is not expected to return to training before the end of 2019.”

£4.4m Gazzaniga looks like he will be the replacement GK for a decent spell.

On the face of it a £4.4m GK for a team that finished 3rd last season and was 5th on clean sheets with 13 looks a bargain.  However the Spurs defence has suffered a number of doubt inducing displays which questions whether representation is worth it even at that bargain price.

Spurs at the moment are 12th in goals conceded with 12, 12th in xGA and 16th in shots per game against and with Watford and Chelsea have only the 1 clean sheet.

What’s more although Lloris has been error prone,  at this point in the season he has the highest save % of any GK.  So will their defence be weakened even further?

GW9 WAT (H)
GW10 LIV (A)
GW11 EVE (A)
GW12 SHU (H)
GW13 WHU (A)
GW14 BOU (H)

De Bruyne

I’m not going to bore you with stats as to how good the £10.0m CM has been this season.  I’ll just say he’s the top points scorer in FPL at this point despite missing GW8 and being a sub in GW5.

Here’s what Pep said prior to the Wolves game in GW8

“No, tomorrow Kevin is not in. After international break he will be ready. It’s not a big problem.”

Now I don’t know about you but I nearly dropped my phone with shock when I read this.  Not the information itself but the fact the Pep actually said something straightforward and didn’t just give us the usual meaningless drivel he usually serves up.  That has to mean something you would think?  Now I know history is full of managers telling us one thing about an injury and it being totally inaccurate but this feels different as we often get very little from Pep.  I think it’s more likely that Pep wanted the player rested over the International break rather than watch him risk injury unnecessarily against the might of Kazakhstan and San Marino .

To me transferring him out is a surprising decision by 129,000 FPL managers

Other posts

You can also see Rob Reid’s wildcard article as well as Keith and Costas’s , also Kris O’s wildcard drafts and Ben and Kev’s wildcard drafts

Also Rick Porters cutting through the FPL noise

Analysing 10 top FPL managers

Early thoughts on the FFGeek team

Underlying stats form tables

Fixture ease

FFGeek wildcard players poll

More content

Geek note: If you join our Patreon site you will get access to an FPL contributor tracker team which combines the contributors individual teams each week to show their favourite players, transfers and captains. It will always be completed on a Friday/Saturday in a normal gameweek. There will also be an accompanying spreadsheet so you can drill down further.

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Joe’s interactive transfer planner and points projection tool

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