Here’s our FPL forwards GW5 player rankings article. There’s a table of stats to help and a spreadsheet that can be filtered how you like.
FPL forwards GW5 player rankings – transfer options for your FPL team
This is the 3rd article in the player rankings series. There’s defenders and GKs plus also midfielders
Methodology
Until there is a decent amount of data for the 19/20 season my rankings will be primarily based on historic performance.
I’ve picked a selection of forwards who I think will start GW5 although where there is doubt it is mentioned in the commentary below.
I’ve then looked at their expected goals and assists data in 18/19 so far as well as how it relates to their historical numbers. After that I’ve then adjusted it for their ability to over/underperform, their bonus potential, their average minutes played and clean sheet points.
Stats definitions
FFG Proj PPG: The PPG going forward using the above methodology adjusted for minutes played as above. I have tweaked these base figures over the IB. This figure is not fixture adjusted
FPL PPM 18/19: The points per match from the fantasy premier league website for 18/19
Consistency 18/19: the % of starts where the player has scored a goal or assist. Only appearance of 45 mins or more count
Projected minutes: The average minutes played using a base of what they did in the last 10 gameweeks of 18/19. However in some cases where I didn’t think that was representative going forward I’ve subjectively adjusted them.
Fixture ease: this is the fixture adjustment from my attacking players fixture ease schedule article.
VFM: That’s the points for 6 games divided by the price to give a value for money estimate.
PPM 19/20: self explanatory.
ATGS GW5: the anytime goal scorer bookies odds for GW5 for £1 invested.
The schedule ranked by projected points
Here is the link to the google spreadsheet. You can go to file>make a copy and then sort it how you like.
However, the schedule is ranked by my projected points over 6 gameweeks. That’s my projected points per game adjusted for fixtures over 6 weeks
Template players
You may or may not know that I define the template players by 7 of the 10 top FPL managers I follow having a certain player in their team. I will generally have that player in my team irrespective of my feelings about him as a way of negating the downward rank risk that occurs if you don’t own him. I talk about this more in my early FFGeek team article.
That classification doesn’t affect the players ranking in this article, which is done purely by numbers. However I will point them out in player rankings articles and you can take that for what it is.
Pukki is the only player in the category at the moment among forwards
Pukki and Abraham
As I said last week, before I get a barrage of people giving me stick over Pukki’s rank and why is King higher etc etc. Let me say that it’s impossible to model Pukki’s future performance on 4 games in the PL. I’ve looked at how other players who finished with high goal performances in the Championship and how they did the following season and used that as a base. It’s hardly ideal but it is what it is.
So if you’re deciding to get Pukki it’s from watching his performances or because he’s become template and you’re de risking it.
Similar for Abraham except Abraham has 2 tricky fixtures next and is a potential sub magnet for Giroud and Batshuayi which diminishes his expected minutes and therefore projections.
Barnes
Barnes last season was an outlier on previous and so analysis calms that down somewhat.
Aguero v Aubameyang
With Jesus potentially fit again for GW5 we could see Aguero’s average minutes diminish and that’s what I’ve assumed. That plus a good fixture run for Arsenal is why Aubameyang s ahead. Aubameynag has his own issues being used as a right sided forward rather than a CF though although given Emery’s tinkering style he could also revert to that given how he performed when Lacazette went off vs Spurs
If you’re looking for cheapies at around £5.0m
If you’re looking for starters then £5.1m Ayew has started 3 of the 4 games and played 85 minutes in GW4
If you’re looking for a cheap bench player at around £4.5m then for me Wickham is the best choice. He’s barely played any minutes but when Ayew and Benteke are your competition you can never rule him out. £4.5m Greenwood despite the phoney build up from OGS when Martial was out only got 8 minutes which isn’t a great pointer to the future.
A fixture ease schedule for attacking players
Here’s a graphic where the teams are ranked by the ease of the defences they face over the next 6 gameweeks:
Other posts
The early FFGeek team thoughts
Analysing 10 top FPL managers teams
The bandwagons and sinking ships
Defender and Goalkeeper player rankings
Prakhar Patel activates his wildcard
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FPL forwards GW5 player rankings image of vardy @cfcunofficial (Chelsea Debs) London [CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]
