fantasy premier league captain tips GW38 – captain options analysed plus transfer poll results


,

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW38 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. Geek note: contributor captain choices added.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW38 – captain options analysed plus transfer poll results

The fixtures

fantasy premier league captain tips GW38

The Bookies Team win odds

Brighton v Man City £1.14 – Aguero, Sterling

Man Utd v Cardiff £1.25 – Pogba, Rashford

Liverpool v Wolves £1.27 – Salah, Mane

Southampton v Huddersfield £1.38 – Ings, Long, Redmond

The Bookies player odds

The odds are for £1 invested up to £2.40. They assume the player starts and ignores assist potential.

£1.53 – Aguero

£1.70 – Sterling

£1.80 – Rashford

£1.85 – Pogba, Martial

£1.95 – Ings

£2.00 – Aubameyang, Vardy, Long

£2.10 – Salah, Mane, Babel, Mitrovic, Rondon, Perez

£2.15 – Ashley Barnes

£2.25 – Sturridge, Origi

£2.30 – Hazard, Moura, Arnautovic,

£2.37 – Wilson, Lacazette,  Batshuayi, Andre Gray, Deulofeu, Zaha

The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll. Thanks very much for taking the time to vote:



fantasy premier league captain tips GW38

Site 1 %FFGeek %Site 3 %Site 4%
Aguero29504944
Sterling18192212
Salah1391611
Mane1171316

So Aguero averaged 43%, Sterling 18% and Salah/Mane 12%

Btw, the FFGeek poll and site 3 asks who will you captain. Site 4 is silent. Site 1 asks who is the best captain.

FFGeek contributor captain picks

Geek update:  Most are now in so added

ContributorCaptain
Joseph CrilleySterling
Rob ReidSalah
Alex BallZaha
Keith SpencerAguero
FPL Word
Mikael DSterling
Jordan SadlerMane
Costas ChariSterling
Sergio TorijaSalah
Yaniv Salomon
Mikael HAguero
Stephen Troop
Andrew FergusonAguero
Robert CosgrovePogba
Prakhar PatelAguero

Aguero and Sterling 3, Salah 2 and Zaha, Mane and Pogba 1

Some stats

I’ll be looking at Aguero and Sterling this week

Gametime

With Man City having no European game this week and needing to win to win the title I would be shocked if either of Sterling or Aguero don’t start

Aguero

Here’s Aguero’s starts away against the non top 6 teams:

fantasy premier league captain tips GW38

So returns in 7 of 12 games and a pretty ordinary points average is certainly nothing to write home about.  Only 1 double figure return.  I would also say that in only 4 of those 12 games did he produce underlying stats at an acceptable level.  He’s also miles behind his season average of xG 0.72 and xA 0.19 although closer in shooting volumes of 4.23.

Certainly the above isn’t anything to get excited about.

Sterling

Here’s Sterlings’s starts away against non top 6 sides

fantasy premier league captain tips GW38

So returns in 5 of 11 games.  An ok points average but only 1 returning game in the last 5 is very disturbing.  It’s also very feast or famine with 3 of the returning games of 5 being double figure FPL points.  In underlying stats terms I would say in 5 of those 11 games he hit an acceptable level

Alot has been made of his position on the left being more successful than the right.  This season to me the underlying numbers suggest he is far more of a threat on the right.  Visually my perception is that on the right with Sane getting to the by left sided by line and producing tap ins for Sterling is where he’s at his most dangerous.  However that seems unlikely to happen with Sane out of favour.

A side by side of the averages

So Sterling has the edge on points and underlying stats except maybe shot volumes although Sterling is a low shot volume player

Defence

Here’s Brighton’s record against the top 6 teams at home

That’s a pretty decent defensive record although all the games are before their defence seem to fall apart in the latter part of the season.  We know that Hughton is a very defensive minded manager although whether they will play with more freedom now they are safe from relegation remains to be seen.



Summary

Aguero and Sterling are the 2 players I have concentrated on.

Gametime wise I would be shocked if either Sterling or Aguero didn’t start. Aguero has penalty duties.

The bookies have Aguero at £1.53 as an anytime goalscorer and Sterling at £1.70

The polls average sees Aguero at 43% and Sterling at 18% with Salah and Mane at 12%

Updated:  The contributor articles show Aguero and Sterling 3, Salah 2 and Zaha, Mane and Pogba 1

The stats favour Sterling in points and underlying stats but he’s gone through a spell of 5 of these games with only 1 returning game with pretty ordinary underlying stats backing it up.  To make matters trickier the Brighton top 6 at home defensive record is pretty good although I would say they are stronger at CB than FB.

The FFGeek choice

I generally treat the captain choice as a rank shield rather than a sword especially when the polls favour someone as potentially dangerous as Aguero.  I also generally prefer my captain to be the penalty taker.  However there’s no denying how ordinary his stats are in these games.

Sterlings are definitely better but the fact that the last 5 games have only seen 1 returning game backed up by a host of ordinary underlying stats doesn’t fill me with confidence either.  I’m also not wild about Guardiola’s positioning of his wide players sitting out on the touchline.  I often watch games and think how does Sterling score so much sitting out there.  I think with Sterling you just have to believe he can pop up for a tap in at anytime.

I think this comes down to whether you believe in stats or the overall quality of the player or whether you are a poll shield person who thinks I just don’t want to be rank killed by picking a non captain favourite if he does produce.

The outcome of this has made me wish I look at the Liverpool players in detail as well but with them being fairly low percentage and the fact that this article already takes hours and hours I’m unable to do it sorry.

The Remaining Polls

Other stuff

See our defender and midfield player ranking articles

See how the 10 top FPL managers I follow got on and the early FFGeek team thoughts.

Also see our underlying stats form tables and our Bandwagon and sinking ships article

Follow FFGeek on twitter and facebook and instagram for article updates and news

Geek League links and details

fantasy premier league 

Sky Sports fantasy football

Enter PIN: 836767

Sun Dream Team

League PIN is SGDKX9Y3

1 thought on “fantasy premier league captain tips GW38 – captain options analysed plus transfer poll results”

  1. Agüero for me to as a “shield”.

    This final weekend very much depends on your positions in your mini leagues. Those at the top will probably prefer to “defend” with Agüero and Sterling… but those sitting 20-30 points off the top of their leagues will probably want a differential captain, even away from Liverpool or Man City.. like a Pogba or Vardy, but even like a Wilson or Zaha, if it means finding that differential to make up ground with one last throw of the dice..?

Leave a Comment