Here’s our fantasy premier league team selection GW38 article where we outline the FFGeek team for GW38. We look at our usual topics of last week, the transfer thoughts, lineup dilemmas and the captain choice
fantasy premier league team selection GW38 – the FFGeek team for GW38
Gameweek 37 review
GW37 points: (average 48) Total points 2,262, Gameweek rank 2,093k, Overall Rank: 36k, green arrow 5k, Team Value: £103.1m
GW37 points:
So a good green arrow of 5k to 36k OR when many managers seem to suffer a red. That happened with no attacking players returning which is pretty bizarre but 3 double figure defensive returns was the key and I’m not sure if I can ever remember that happening to me.
I was also lucky with my Son to Pogba transfer which gave me a 4 point swing. Ironic in the end as I couldn’t turn on my phone all day as I was afraid Eddie Howe’s non defence was going to do me once again. It was definitely a lucky decision as opposed to the right one.
Not looking forward to GW38
I’m really not looking forward to GW38. The players in my team have served me well over the past few weeks so I can’t regret having the team I have. I’m up to 36k which I never thought I’d get anywhere close to but I can’t help but feel there’s a red arrow hunting me like a heat seeking missile. I’ve always known this gameweek was going to be a potential problem it’s just been exacerbated by the Vertonghen injury and the transfer I didn’t want to use for Andre Gray after Deeney was suspended.
Alot of managers will have 3 Wolves players but most will be on their benches and they will see their Southampton players come off their benches. Unfortunately I will be playing at least 2 Wolves players. If there’s a load of rotation they could be joined by 3 Brighton players. Potentially 6 players against Liverpool and Man City is not the recipe for a green arrow.
If I could freeze my rank now I definitely would.
Transfer thoughts
1 free transfer and £0.1m in the bank. I’ve used all my chips
There will be no 4 point hit for 1 game.
Vertonghen out?
So my whole focus during the week has been who to transfer in Andre Gray for on the basis that he wouldn’t play with Deeney back. The choice was probably going down to Long or Ings. This decision was all on the basis that Vertonghen, as my only other fitness doubt, looked like he was going to be fit. Indeed he started the UCL match v Ajax. However he is now ruled out and that has changed the decision.
Now it’s do I replace Vertonghen or Gray? As I said above, I can’t countenance a -4 point deduction for 1 game so I have to make a choice between the 2 of them. In very simple it seems Vertonghen definitely wont play and Gray won’t start either. Home games against non top 6 sides have seen Gray get 20 minutes or so and against West Ham that could get some points.
So very logically I should replace Vertonghen. I would go for a defender with Liverpool, Man Utd and Southampton as the candidates. I’m wary of who will play CB vs Wolves other than Van Dijk for Liverpool and I can’t afford Van Dijk. The usual “bus gate” has caused problems with a Man Utd choice with neither Shaw or Lindelof spotted so I’m not going there v Cardiff.
That leaves Southampton. Now the issue there is that Southampton have only kept 1 clean sheet at home this season and that was against Fulham. To counter that though Huddersfield have failed to score in 10 of their away games this season and have only scored away in 1 of their last 9. So if I’m replacing Vertonghen then it will be with Valery of Southampton.
If I don’t replace Vertonghen it will force me to start Doherty who could be lucky to get 1 point I feel.
Gray out?
I don’t think Gray will start as when Deeney has been fit he will normally be a sub although he has got a record of getting reasonable minutes off the bench so I’m not totally thinking he will get no attacking returns.
If I were to replace him it would probably be with Shane Long. I prefer Ings but his minutes have been terrible and I’m just not sure he will even start. There are other options in Rondon v Fulham, or Barnes v Arsenal or even Origi v Wolves. But the Huddersfield route seems potentially the most fruitful. Their non top 6 away record isn’t too bad though. They’ve averaged 1.67 goals a game and in 12 games away against non top 6 sides. They have conceded 4 once and 3 twice. Reversing that they’ve got 2 clean sheets and conceded 1 goal 4 times. The unknown is how defensive minded they will be on the last day
So replacing Vertonghen is the safer more conservative route but has far less potential upside than replacing Gray with Long. (I’m still struggling to believe I’m saying that)
Arghh those 50/50’s
So in the end I decided to replace Vertonghen with Valery. Another 50/50 call which I don’t know the right answer to but just hope I get it right.
Btw, Is this really the future of the premier league?
Fulham conceded 77 goals this season so far including 45 away and Huddersfield 75 overall and 44 away. The reverse of that is you’ve got Liverpool and Man City knocking on the door of 100 goals this season. Is this the future? A disparity which means we stuff our sides with 6 players from Liverpool and Man City and then spend the rest of the time focusing our transfers on the likes of teams facing the Huddersfield and Fulhams of this world?
I hope the Premier League is rich enough so there is more equality otherwise I suspect the evening out will come from FPL pricing the top players so they become unaffordable in anything other than paltry numbers.
Anyway just an aside
Captain thoughts
You can see my detailed captain analysis article if you haven’t already.
Although I was disappointed in his stats I’m going for Aguero as a pretty strong poll leader. I could try and go for a differential captain to offset the possible red arrow issues in the rest of my team but lets face it that’s not me.
Lineup issues
With 3 Brighton players in my team the lineup is pretty easy. Doherty is first on the bench.
The team
Here’s the team lineup then:
Good luck this week everyone. If you holding or chasing in your mini league or just trying to get to a target OR then I wish you all the best.
There will be articles next week rounding up the FFGeek team, the contributors and the 10 top FPL managers.
Other stuff
Also see last season’s 715 OR finisher Andrew Ferguson’s team
See our defender and midfield player ranking articles
See how the 10 top FPL managers I follow got on
Also see our underlying stats form tables and our Bandwagon and sinking ships article
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