FPL defender tips GW4 – player rankings for Defs/Gks


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Here’s our FPL defender tips GW4 article with player rankings for defenders and goalkeepers as we enter GW4. There’s a table of stats plus some narrative around the choices

FPL defender tips GW4 – player rankings for Defs/Gks

You can also see our forwards player rankings article and our midfielders player rankings article

It’s difficult to make predictions based on the first 3 weeks of the season and the limited takes we can from pre-season

So while I’ve adjusted for transfers, personnel changes and some early form 18/19 stats are still my base. Those particularly affected will be discussed in the narrative below

Methodology

As it’s so difficult to model defenders and goalkeepers from underlying stats up I’ve based them on points per match from the fantasy premier league site.

I’ve then adjusted them for the next 6 fixtures with the fixture ease factors as well as for any players with excessive substitute distortion and lastly for changes in defensive circumstances. The last one is particularly subjective unfortunately but necessary. Most of the PPMs are from the FPL site but some are subject to the substitution amendment as mentioned above or if they are new to the FPL or team and extrapolation of others stats.

The VFM rank is the projected points divided by the value.

Lastly I’ve put one bookies odds for a clean sheet for GW4

I’ve also added on the Points per Match for 19/20




The Defs/GKs ranked by projected points over 6 fixtures 

Players are ranked on their projected points over the next 6 gameweeks.  Here’s the link to the google spreadsheet. Go to File> make a copy and then you can filter it adjust as you want

The Defs/GKs ranked by value for money over 6 fixtures

Players are ranked on their value for money over the next 6 gameweeks.  Here’s the link to the google spreadsheet. Go to File> make a copy and then you can filter it adjust as you want.

The Bookies Clean sheet odds for GW4

Remember it is the return for £1 invested.

TeamCS odds
GW4
Man City1.50
Chelsea1.85
Liverpool1.91
Everton2.50
Man Utd2.62
Leicester2.62
C Palace2.80
Newcastle2.80
Watford3.25
West Ham3.30
Wolves3.60
A Villa3.70
Arsenal3.70
Southampton4.20
Spurs4.40
Bournemouth5.80
Norwich6.00
Sheffield United8.00
Brighton9.00
Burnley9.00

Where have all the clean sheets gone?

Last season Liverpool got 21 clean sheets, Man City 20, Chelsea 16 and Spurs 13.  That’s 70 clean sheets between them and all things being equal you’d expect most weeks for 2 of them to have got clean sheets.  So after 3 rounds we should have had 5 between them.  So far we’ve had 1 and that was from Man City.

Now there are reasons you can point to.  Liverpool have Alisson injured, Chelsea have been playing a more attacking style and Kante has been injured, Spurs have Vertonghen out of favour and Man City if you were stretching it have seen Kompany leave and have Fernandinho Copa America match fitness issues.  As I said I have tried to make adjustments for this in their previous seasons PPM which is the base of the numbers.

I don’t think 3 games is any real indication of the future.  Unfortunately the underlying numbers don’t help at all though for positiveity as all 4 clubs are significantly behind their last season average in terms of expected goals against.

While I have made adjustments for the above factors they are obviously subjective but it would take more games before I thought there was a fundamental shift away from clean sheets and defender value.

Man City

You’re always subject to Peps rotation but for me Laporte and Ederson are the most secure

The £4.0m and £4.5m defenders

You will have noticed the scarcity of £4.5m and £4.0m defenders in the schedule. It’s unrealistic to rank them over 6 games as you’ll either use them as bench players or as a rotation so analysing them as playing every game is pretty unrealistic.

Of the £4.0mish defs, £4.2m Lundstram looks the best of the £4.0ms.

£4.0m Kelly of Palace has survived the introduction of Cahill and so now only if Sakho or Tomkins can threaten him.  Neither have return dates.  Hanley of Norwich has seen Klose possibly out for the season with injury and Zimmerman with no return date so he holds his place for now.  Rico lost his place to Daniels.  Now Daniels is injured long term it looks like so he could get that back.  The fact that Fraser played wing back in a back 3 after the injury isn’t helpful though.  Ultimately Lloyd Kelly will take the LB position and although no return date it doesn’t appear to be a long term injury.

Of the £4.5m defs the top rated are Soyncu, Adam Smith, Femenia and Mings.

A fixture ease schedule for defensive players

Here’s a fantasy premier league best fixtures GW4 graphic where the teams are ranked by the ease of the attacking teams they face over the next 6 gameweeks.   This has been tweaked from earlier in the week.




Other posts

The FFGeek captain poll

The FFGeek contributors show their teams for GW4 part 1

GW3 review from an underlying stats perspective

Analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers

The transfer in and out polls

Early thoughts on the FFGeek team

GW4 fixture ease article

See our GW4 bandwagons and sinking ships article

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5 thoughts on “FPL defender tips GW4 – player rankings for Defs/Gks”

    • Yaniv, thanks for this I stupidly put the value for money schedule in twice. now corrected. VVD on points projection is higher but Matip wins out on value for money thanks and good luck this week

  1. Used to be good when you rated the Defences as a whole too.

    Like from the above its not possible to know how you rank the Defences of teams in general?

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