Here’s our fantasy premier league captain pick GW13 article. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FFGeek captain poll, the contributors picks and some stats to seek out the best captain choice. There’s also the results of the transfer polls. UPDATED for all the captain picks
fantasy premier league captain pick GW13 – plus transfer poll results
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The fixtures
Bookies team to win odds
Everton v Norwich – £1.38 – Richarlison
Man City v Chelsea £1.42 – Aguero, Sterling and De Bruyne
Palace v Liverpool £1.42 – Salah (if fit), Mane, Firmino
Arsenal v Southampton – £1.44 Aubameyang and Lacazette
The bookies player odds
The odds are for £1 invested up to £2.40. They assume the player starts and ignores assist potential.
£1.67 – Aguero
£1.70 – Aubameyang
£1.75 – Kane
£1.83 – Jesus
£1.91 – Vardy, Sterling
£1.95 – Lacazette
£2.00 – Richarlison
£2.10 – Salah, Mane
£2.40 – C Wilson, Abraham
The Captain Poll results
The captain poll asks who will be your captain?
The contributor captain picks
UPDATED: Here’s the full list of contributor captains
You can see the contributors teams article 1 and the contributors article 2 and the contributors 3 and contributors 4 article here
Vardy vs Aubameyang
Gametime
So incredibly this could be one of the few times that there are no gametime issues surrounding the prospective captains as both should play. Where Aubameyang plays is another question given the difficult to predict manager.
Stat comparison
Hopefully the abbreviations are self explanatory. The first set of fixtures are non top 6 home and away to match their fixtures next week. The overall are the entire season.
So in actual returns Vardy is miles ahead of Aubameyang in the relevant and the overall categories. On the underlying numbers Aubameyang is marginally ahead on all of them except the xG in the non top 6 home/away comparison.
Defences
Southampton away are:
8th ranked in goals conceded away with 8 in 6 away games
8th ranked in xGA away with 9.23
7th in shots per game away against with 13
4th equal in offsides per game away which is a sign of bus parking in away games
13th in possession away from home which leans towards the above although not that strongly
In away games against traditional top 6 teams they lost 2-1 to Man City and Spurs.
Brighton at home are:
10th ranked in goals conceded at home with 7 goals conceded in 6 home games
5th ranked in xGA at home with 5.41 xGA
5th in shots per game at home against with 8.7
12th equal in offsides per game at home which is a sign of not parking the bus
7th in possession at home which leans towards them not being a defensive team at home
In home games against traditional top 6 games they beat Spurs 3-0. It is worth noting that their other home games have been West Ham, Southampton, Burnley, Everton and Norwich.
Summary
Gametime wise you would say both should start.
The bookies have Aubameyang £1.70 anytime goal scoring odds and Vardy at £1.91. Aguero is at £1.67, Kane £1.75 and Sterling £1.91.
The Polls for who you are going to captain have Vardy at 39%, Aubameyang at 15% and Mane at 12%
UPDATED As for the 21 contributors 38% have gone for Vardy, 24% for Mane, 14% for Sterling and 10% for Lacazette and Aubameyang.
Stats wise Vardy’s returns are clearly better on comparable fixtures and overall. The underlying numbers are close with Aubameyang shading each category except relevant fixture xG.
Both defences aren’t that bad and in particular both have good underlying xG and shots against.
Both Aubameyang and Vardy have penalty duties
FFGeek view
I will probably go with the polls on Vardy even though there are definite negatives against it. The case for Aubameyang doesn’t look strong enough to go against the polls.
The transfer Polls
you can see the full polls here
More content
Geek note: If you join our Patreon site you will get access to an FPL contributor tracker team which combines the contributors individual teams each week to show their favourite players, transfers and captains. It will always be completed on a Friday/Saturday in a normal gameweek. There will also be an accompanying spreadsheet so you can drill down further. Currently 703 points 76k overall rank
You also get:
Weekly podcasts with the Geek and the other contributors
Joe’s interactive transfer planner and points projection tool
FFGeek private leagues
Access to the FFGeek Slack channel for discussion with the contributors and members
NEW Weekly FFGeek contributor imaginary wildcard articles
$2 and $3 tiers per calendar month. No commitment beyond 1 month
Other posts
Early thoughts on the FFGeek team
FFGeek contributors show their GW13 teams part 1
Help Alex Ball choose his transfers for GW13
FFGeek contributors show their teams Part 2
Defender and GK player rankings
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