fantasy premier league captain tips DGW32 – plus transfer poll and other poll results

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips DGW32 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. We also look at the results of the transfer in and out polls plus there are a number of other polls relating to DGW32

fantasy premier league captain tips DGW32 – plus transfer poll and other poll results

The fixtures

The Bookies Team win odds

Man City v Fulham (£1.25) & Cardiff (£1.06) = £2.31  Aguero, Sterling

Chelsea v Cardiff (£1.44) & Brighton (£1.24)  = £2.68  Hazard, Higuain

Man Utd v Watford (£1.42) & Wolves (£2.05) = £3.47  Pogba, Rashford if fit, Lukaku if fit

The Bookies player odds

The odds are for £1 invested up to £2.40. They assume the player starts and ignores assist potential. The bookies only have odds for the first game so I’ve included the odds for the 2nd game for the team to win

£1.53 – Aguero (game 2 to win £1.06)

£1.61 – Jesus (game 2 to win £1.06)

£1.67 – Sterling (game 2 to win £1.06)

£1.85 – Lukaku (game 2 to win £1.06)

£2.00 – Hazard (game 2 to win £1.24)

£2.05 – Higuain (game 2 to win £1.24)

£2.15 – Sane (game 2 to win £1.06), Martial (game 2 to win £1.06), Rashford (game 2 to win £1.06)

£2.25 – Murray (game 2 to win £13.00), Jimenez (game 2 to win £3.70), Batshuayi (game 2 to win £7.00)

£2.40 – Kane (game 2 to win £1.47)

The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll. Thanks very much for taking the time to vote:

A distinct lack of captain polls about as I write this although the trend seems pretty clear

Btw, the FFGeek poll asks who will you captain. Site 1 asks for the best captain and site 2 is silent. The FFGeek poll went up after the 2nd England match. Site 1 before. I’m not sure when 2 went up.

FFGeek contributor captain picks

Geek update:  Here’s the FFGeek contributors captain picks:

You can see the articles with these links:

Contributor article 1

Part 2 contributor article

Contributor article 3

Some stats

I’m going to be looking at Aguero’s and Sterling’s stats.  With them both playing 2 games I’m going to look at their stats home and away combined against non top 6 teams.

Gametime

The fixtures are Fulham away on the Saturday and Cardiff at home on Wednesday

A semi final of the FA Cup v Brighton on the following Saturday is followed by a Tuesday UCL semi against Spurs.

That schedule in itself gives rise to significant rotation risk.  This article is written on Thursday before any press conference by Pep but he’s not the most helpful when it comes to team lineup news anyway.

Over the International Break Sterling played 160 minutes in 2 European qualifiers.  Aguero did not join up with the Argentinian squad.

Sterling could be replaced, if rotated, in the team by Sane or Mahrez or even Bernardo.  Sterling can play left or right which means he is more replaceable but also easier to fit into the side.

Realistically you’d expect Aguero to be replaced by Jesus if he is rotated.  Jesus played very little over the International Break and both of Brazils games were in Europe.  So he won’t be fatigued.  He’s also played nearly 1900 minutes in all competitions this season.  Only about 800 minutes or so less than Aguero so the disparity isn’t as big as some would think..

Gametime and benchings this PL season

Aguero has played 2662 minutes in all competitions in 37 appearances.

Sterling has played 3019 minutes in all competitions in 40 appearances.

Aguero has been benched in 3 PL games.

GW17 v Everton H after a 3 game groin injury where he didn’t come on

GW18 v Palace H 40 mins played.  He blanked.

GW22 v Wolves H 14 minutes.  He blanked.

Sterling has not started in 6 PL games.  3 he didn’t come on:

Huddersfield H GW2, Burnley H GW9, GW15 Watford A

He has come on in 3 games from the bench.

GW17 Everton H 24 minutes – he scored

GW25 Everton A 31 minutes – he blanked

GW28 West Ham H 35 minutes – he blanked

Aguero Stats

Here’s Aguero’s stats in games he’s started against all non top 6 sides

Overall it looks pretty healthy.  Returns in 13/17 games which is a staggering 76%.  Disappointingly only 2 double figure returns which is a poor 12%

Here’s a graph I did where I converted his NPxG and xA into FPL goal and assist points to assess his form over the season.  Each point is multiplied by 38 for a season total points to make it easier to illustrate.

GW1 starts on the left hand side of the horizontal axis.  The vertical access is the amount of points multiplied by 38 the NPxG and xA generates.

His average score is 120 so can see that since GW23 he has been in a pretty major slump with 2 goals and an assist in 6 games on the back of pretty sub par underlying stats.

Was this just fatigue related to a number of games palyed and his 2 week rest means we will see the early season Aguero back?

Sterling stats

Here’s Sterling’s stats in games he’s started against all non top 6 sides

So returns in 11 of 16 games which is an impressive 69%.  He’s got double figure FPL hauls in 6 of those 16 games which is a phenomenal 38%.

Let’s look at the same graph as Aguero’s

Remember  I converted his NPxG and xA into FPL goal and assist points.  Each point is multiplied by 38 for a season total points to make it easier to illustrate.

GW1 starts on the left hand side of the horizontal axis.  The vertical access is the amount of points  multiplied by 38 the NPxG and xA generates.

Given Sterlings average is 150 he himself was also in a bit of a slump which he sky rocketed out of with his hat trick against Watford.  It was no where near as dramatic a slump as Aguero’s though.  Before the hat trick it was 1 goal and 2 assists in the 7 games before hand.

 Comparison tables

Here we put the 2 captain candidates averages together

So you can see that Sterling pretty much wins every comparison except the goal threat underlying stats.  However in FPL point terms the extra point for a goal plus the better assist stats would generate more points.

A word about the opposition defences

Since they are both playing the same defence no comparisons are required between opposition.

Fulham H

Fulham at home have conceded 30 goals from 15 games.  Only Cardiff have conceded more at home.  xG conceded wise they are 19th at home with only Huddersfield worse.

Cardiff Away

Cardiff at home have conceded 26 goals from 14 games.  They are 13th in the table for this stat.  xG conceded wise they are 17th ranked away.

Summary

Gametime wise you really should read the complete section but in essence, Sterling has played more minutes in all competitions, played 160 minutes over the International Break whereas Aguero didn’t travel with Argentina.

Sterling has been on the subs bench 6 times in the PL compared to Aguero’s 3.  Aguero’s have all been at home whereas Sterlings have been more mixed.

Sterling has a number of players who could cover for him.  Aguero only really Jesus who played limited minutes in Europe over the International Break.

The bookies only have odds on the first game where Aguero is £1.53 to score and Sterling close by with £1.67.

The polls emphatically favour Aguero 63% to 17% on average.

Geek update:  The contributors comprehensively favour Aguero 13 to 1 for Sterling with 2 of the 13 triple captaining him.

The stats favour Sterling clearly in all but underlying stats goal threat.  However convert that into FPL points with Sterlings extra points and greater assist potential then Sterling is the winner there as well.  Aguero appears to be in a bit of a slump although was that fatigue related and fixed by a 2 week rest?  Sterling was in a bit of a slump too (although less so) until his Watford hat trick.

The FFGeek choice

I don’t like going against the polls at the best of time and especially with someone with the potential of Aguero.

The stats for me clearly favour Sterling though but my feeling is that Aguero’s gametime is less risky.  The one nagging point is that his 3 PL benchings have all been home games.

Despite that, I will probably stick with Aguero.

The Remaining Polls

You can see all the polls in full in our captain poll article

Some other articles for GW32

Form tables

Defender player rankings

Midfield player rankings

Forward player rankings

There are a number of articles on the site if you are free hitting:

The Geeks draft free hit team

FFGeek contributors draft free hit teams article 1 and article 2

Andrew Ferguson’s draft free hit team

There’s also Joseph Crilleys excellent team planning tool.

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