fantasy premier league captain tips GW11 – plus transfer poll results

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain tips GW11 article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice. We also look at the results of the transfer in and out polls.

fantasy premier league captain tips GW11 – plus transfer poll results

The fixtures

The Bookies Team win odds

Only 2 teams are big favourites this week:

Man City v Southampton – £1.10 Aguero, Sterling, Mahrez

Chelsea v C Palace – £1.28 Hazard although a gametime doubt,  Morata

Too less favourites

Everton v Brighton – £1.61 Richarlison, Sigurdsson

West Ham v Burnley – £1.67  Arnautovic

 The Bookies player odds

Here’s a bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.30 for £1 invested as of Saturday morning. It assumes the player starts and doesn’t count assist potential

£1.44 – Aguero

£1.75 – Sterling

£1.83 – Hazard

£1.85 – Salah

£1.91 – Mahrez, Morata

£1.95 – Arnautovic

£2.00 – Kane

£2.15 – Sane

£2.30 – Richarlison, Vardy

The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll:

You can see the full FFGeek captain poll with this link

Here’s a summary of 4 captain polls:

Unlike the FFGeek poll the other polls all went out days before the news on Hazard from Sarri saying that he was ready for 40-45 minutes.  I imagine alot of those early Hazard voters will change their mind.  Therefore I expect the FFGeek poll to represent most accurately what active FPL managers will be doing

Btw, the FFGeek poll asks who will you captain as does site 2 although just gives you a couple of options. Site 1 asks for the best captain and site 3 is silent on the question.

The FFGeek contributors

Here’s the FFGeek contributors captain picks as it stands. Pretty much a full house this week

You can see Andrew Ferguson’s team in his article also there’s the other contributors teams article part 1 and contributors part 2 and contributors part 3

Some stats

This week I’m looking at Aguero and Salah as I can’t see Hazard being a realistic option given the minutes comments by Sarri.

Aguero

Here’s Aguero’s starts in 18/19 against non top 6 sides at home.

Returns in 5/5 games . Minutes and Bonus points are the obvious issues though.

Overall Aguero’s Points per 90 mins when on the pitch is 7.0 and he’s returned a goal or assist in 6 of his 10 starts which is 60%. He has the best underlying stats of any forward when on the pitch and is my top ranked forward for projected points over the next 6 matches

The Southampton away defence

The Southampton defence has only played 1 top 6 team away

GW6 Liverpool 0-3. 1.78 xG conceded and 12 shots.

Apart from the score those are quite respectable stats.

They have played Chelsea at home and lost 0-3 where they were pathetic with an xG conceded of 3.55 and 21 shots.

Overall in goals conceded they are 11th having conceded 14 goals. In xG conceded they are slightly worse in 14th place overall

Salah

Here’s Salah’s starts in 18/19 against top 6 sides away although whether you would call the Arsenal defence a top 6 side is debatable.

So he blanked in both games although his underlying stats including shot and key pass volumes were very good.

Overall Salah’s Points per 90 mins when on the pitch is a 6.9 and he’s returned a goal or assist in 6 of his 10 starts which is 60%. He has the  best underlying stats of any midfielder and is my top ranked midfielder for projected points over the next 6 matches

The Arsenal home defence

The Arsenal home defence has only played 1 top 6 team at their own ground

GW1 Man City 0-2.  2.02 xG conceded and 17 shots.

They also have played Chelsea away and lost 2-3.

Overall in goals conceded they are 8th having conceded 13 goals. In xG conceded they are slightly worse in 10th place overall

Summary

Both players should start.  There’s little doubt over Salah and Aguero should play given he was rested midweek and Shaktar is the UCL match midweek.

Aguero is on penalty duties and Salah is 2nd to Milner who isn’t a guaranteed starter.

The Bookies have Aguero at £1.44 anytime goalscoring odds and Salah £1.85

The polls have Aguero as a  comprehensive leader. I think the FFGeek poll will be the most reflective of what people are doing as we started late with full information and that’s 71% Aguero to 11% Hazard and 6% Salah.

Stats wise Aguero wins considering the opposition although minutes are the main issue.  Salah though faces an Arsenal defence potentially without a left back with Monreal and Kolasinac facing a late fitness test.  The high line Arsenal defence could be absolutely slaughtered by the pace of Mane and Salah.

The FFGeek choice

The polls are too strong to ignore so I’m going with Aguero.  I think the doubts over minutes means Hazard is a no go and Salah despite the Arsenal defensive issues is just too big a theoretical opposition difference against Aguero to take the plunge with.

The transfer in and out polls

I missed out Wilson which may explain some of the none of these

That’s it hope you found it useful.

See also the popular and not so popular transferred players in the bandwagons and sinking ships article plus also who the 10 top managers I follow have in their team. Also who I have or maybe interested in getting in the early thoughts on the FFgeek team article

See the defender and GK player rankings article,  midfield player rankings and forwards rankingsarticle

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